The Covid-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on the world. A key question that policy makers, business owners and new entrepreneurs are now facing is whether the world will revert back to “normal” or will there be a “new normal” that is fundamentally different than what we were used to before.
To encourage analysis of this question the Business Warrior’s Dojo is presenting a special series on paradigm shifts which provides a framework for analyzing, forecasting and mapping out positive ways to work within the large structural societal changes that are occurring and will define how we live going forward. To start, in Part 1 of Paradigm Shifts, we will analyze Thomas Kuhn’s classic model of how paradigms change in the area of science and consider how applicable this model is in today’s world characterized by different types of interpretive noise, high degrees of interconnectivity and new types of black swan events.
What is a Paradigm?
The word “paradigm” comes from the Greek word “paradeigma”, which means a pattern or a model. Over time, this word became understood to mean not only a set of rules regarding the internal structure of a system, such as the grammatical rules of a language, or how a particular task was to be carried out, but more broadly a framework for defining how certain elements of the world are identified, defined and addressed, typically within the context of a particular discipline.
In the area of science, the physicist and philosopher Thomas Kuhn, author of the influential book “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions”, defined the word paradigm to mean “universally accepted scientific achievements that, for a time, provide model problems and solutions for a community of practitioners.”
Thomas Kuhn defined the word paradigm to mean “universally accepted achievements that, for a time, provide model problems and solutions for a community of practitioners.”
There are four key concepts in Kuhn’s definition which are outlined below.
Universality. The first concept in Kuhn’s definition is universality, meaning that the vast majority of the participants in a paradigm must accept its boundaries, structure and tenets to be true. While it is natural for some people, both within and outside of paradigms to challenge their defining elements, a key characteristic of a paradigm is that it has a very high degree of acceptance by people within the paradigm.
Problem Definition. A second key element of Kuhn’s definition of a paradigm is agreement regarding how problems are defined. It is simply not possible for any discipline to define everything as a problem that should fall within its purview and it becomes necessary for a paradigm to filter the potential universe of problems into a set of reasonably finite questions that can be addressed. This is a very important element of paradigms because of course what is left in and left out of a paradigm has a very important impact on what paradigm participants to do.
Methods and Solutions. A third key element of Kuhn’s definition of a paradigm is acceptance of the methods that are applied and the solutions that are obtained by using those methods. These concepts are very interrelated, as the methods that are accepted as legitimate define the solutions that will be produced: analytical tools are often 95% of the answers. Further, solutions have a tendency to become building blocks for other types of solutions which further define the path toward other areas of inquiry.
Duration. A fourth concept in Kuhn’s definition of a paradigm is that the methods and solutions provided within a paradigm are not permanent. Problem solving methods undergo consistent development and this development allows new light to be shed on past conclusions.
Further, paradigms unavoidably operate within a world that is constantly changing; these changes also have a very important impact on how conclusions that are reached within the paradigm are viewed, both from inside and outside of the paradigm. The fact that the forward motion of existence continually generates new facts, new experiences and new forms of reality is a constant evaluative process that serves to either affirm or call into the paradigm into question.
The fact that the forward motion of existence continually generates new facts, new experience and new forms of reality is a constant evaluative process that serves to either affirm or call into question the paradigm.
Scientific Progress and Paradigm Shifts
Kuhn argues that scientific progress occurs in five steps.
Pre-Paradigm Stage. The first stage of scientific progress is the pre-paradigm phase. This stage is defined by a lack of agreeement on the questions that should be addressed, how these questions should be addressed and the conclusions that should be considered valid. From a disciplinary perspective, in Kuhn’s view this is considered highly inefficient because people in the discipline are not working at odds with each other rather than together and resources are not being put their best use.
Normal Science and Anomolies. In the second stage of scientific revolution many of the conflicting views that existed during the pre-paradigm phase are discarded and a paradigm is established. Within this paradigm what is referred to as normal science is carried out where members of the paradigm widely agree on the problems to be addressed, the tools to address those problems and the validity of the conclusions that are reached.
In this stage of scientific progress anomolies may begin to appear which are phenomena that cannot be explained within the framework of the paradigm’s system of question boundaries, tools and conclusions.
Paradigm Crisis. In the third step of scientific progress, if anomolies that have appeared cannot be resolved, the paradigm enters into a period of crisis where the paradigm is questioned by a significant number of paradigm participants. If the anomolies can be resolved, the paradigm remains in place. If the anomolies cannot be resolved, the paradigm falls apart.
Paradigm Shift. In the fourth step of scientific progress, a new paradigm is developed which is able to resolve the anomolies that caused the disintegration of the previous paradigm. This can lead to a number of developments, including drawing new paradigm boundaries, determining new paradigm questions, utilizing new problem solving methods and arriving at new conclusions.
Paradigm Legitimation. In the fifth step of scientific progress, the new paradigm becomes accepted and directs scientific activity.
Key phases of scientific progress are: the pre-paradigm phase; normal science and the appearance of anomolies; paradigm crisis; paradigm shift and paradigm legitimation.
Consideration of Paradigm Shifts
While Kuhn’s theory has been very influential, there are several things which call it into question as a universal theory to explain scientific or other types of disciplinary progress.
Progress Outside of the Paradigm. To begin with, even in periods of relative paradigm stability, a great deal of disciplinary progress occurs outside of the boundaries of paradigm and do not cause changes to the paradigm. Tesla’s work is one example of this. https://hekint.org/2017/01/22/objections-to-kuhns-theory-of-scientific-progression/
Interdisciplinary Progress. A second phenomenon of the search for understanding in the modern world is the increasingly permeability of paradigms to incorporate the perspectives of different disciplines. This has caused paradigms to incorporate different viewpoints, tools and conclusions without necessarily causing them to collapse.
External Shocks. Finally, and perhaps most importantly given black swan events such as Covid-19, paradigms are tied to reality and reality can be made to shift suddenly due to external factors such as massive changes in the economy, new forms of social activity or transformational new technologies. These changes can force paradigms to operate within very different conditions and make them reconceptualize relevant questions, methods and solutions.
Conclusion
This article provided a brief introduction to Kuhn’s framework for understanding paradigm shifts in the area of science and highlighted some limitations in its ability to explain discliplinary progress in the modern world. Part 2 of this Special Series on Paradigm Shifts will consider the impact of Covid-19 within the framework of paradigm shifts.